Sales slow to a trickle as estate agents await 'gentle pick up' in spring
Rylett Road in the West of Shepherd's Bush
W12's buyers and sellers appear to have stayed at home during the winter months, with the latest figures from the Land Registry showing the market in deep freeze, with transactions slowing to a trickle.
Though there still may be some late additions, the number of property sales in the final quarter of 2019 were down by over 50% on the same period one year ago.
The overall average price meanwhile also dropped by 9% compared with the same period in 2018, though it was up by a small 2.7% on the previous quarter.
The price of flats also appeared to show a drastic fall of almost a third over the year, but that is mainly explained by the slowdown in sales at the redeveloped Television Centre. During the last three months of 2018, 22 apartments changed hands, all priced between £1 million and £2 million.
During the same period in 2019, just four sales were recorded in the development's Wood Crescent, priced from £960,000 to £2,200,000.
The vast majority of flat sales were much more modestly priced at under £500,000. There were also a number sold for under £300,000, including two in Mayfield Road, pictured below, sold for £215,000 and £285,000.
The most popular area with buyers of both flats and terraced houses was the W12 9 postcode, in the leafy west of our area, from the streets around Askew Road to the border with Chiswick.
Sales of homes in streets such as Wendell, Bassein Park and Rylett Roads, priced between £1,400,000 and £2 million, helped to push the average value of terraced houses up by 27% over the previous quarter to £1,233,996.
A semi-detached house in Rylett Road meanwhile achieved the highest sale price during the quarter at £3,500,000.
And while the short term picture appeared rather gloomy, the figures for the final three months of the 'tweenies' decade did show the long term value of property, with prices of flats rising by 93.8% over the previous ten years and terraced houses soaring by 126%.
As we head into spring, we are already seeing numerous reports of the market recovering and heading for a post-Brexit 'Boris Bounce'. But Teresa Brewer of local agency Finlay Brewer is slightly more cautious, saying: " Before everyone gets too carried away though, these are headlines written to sell news. The facts of the matter are currently a little less frantic in West London.
"Yes there is a more positive feeling out there – no doubt about it – it is just going to take some time for the West London market to re-calibrate. There are some excellent buyers in the market and more properties are being put on the market so we are definitely seeing more activity than in 2019 but it is more of a gentle and healthy pick up rather than a bounce."
The numbers below are subject to revision as is it usual that some properties are added late to the Land Registry's database.
|Shepherd's Bush Property Prices - (October - December 2019)|
|Sales||Overall Ave||Total Sales|
|Change over quarter||110.5%||-50.0%||27.4%||-61.3%||-12.3%||-43.3%||2.7%||-48.0%|
|Change over year||436.4%||-50.0%||22.8%||-40.0%||-32.3%||-60.0%||-9.0%||-55.6%|
|Change over three years||103.5%||-75.0%||-3.3%||-47.8%||6.5%||-20.8%||-4.4%||-30.7%|
|Change over five years||183.4%||-66.7%||43.2%||-52.0%||21.7%||-41.5%||31.8%||-44.1%|
|Change over ten years||143.6%||-80.0%||126.0%||-63.6%||93.8%||-43.3%||84.6%||-50.5%|
Source: Land Registry
For the country as a whole prices grew by 1.4% in 2019 to reach an average of £215,282 according to the Nationwide House Price Index. The figures from National Statistics show a 2.2% rise to November 2019 to an average of £235,298.
Commenting on the figures, Robert Gardner, Nationwide's Chief Economist, said, “January saw a further modest pick-up in annual UK house price growth to 1.9%, from 1.4% in December. This follows twelve 12 successive months in which annual price growth had been below 1%.
“Indicators of UK economic activity were fairly volatile for much of 2019, but the underlying pace of growth slowed through the year as a result of weaker global growth and an intensification of Brexit uncertainty.
“Recent data continue to paint a mixed picture. Economic growth appeared to grind to a halt as 2019 drew to a close, though business surveys point to a pickup at the start of the New Year. “
The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ (RICS) November 2019 UK Residential Market Survey reported that key measures of buyer demand point to sales remaining in negative territory, the uncertainty surrounding the 2019 General Election and Brexit being the likely cause of suppressed activity. However, there is an expectation that a more stable trend is likely to emerge over the coming three months.
The Bank of England’s Agents’ summary of business conditions – 2019 Q4 reported that the housing market remained subdued, mainly due to the October Brexit deadline and the General Election. Contacts reported that house prices were modestly down on a year ago in the south and modestly up elsewhere.
Robert Gardner added, “Looking ahead, economic developments will remain the key driver of housing market trends and house prices. Much will continue to depend on how quickly uncertainty about the UK’s future trading relationships lifts, as well as the outlook for global growth. Overall, we expect the economy to continue to expand at a modest pace in 2020, with house prices remaining broadly flat over the next 12 months.
February 24, 2020